Macquarie Research memprediksi bahwa krisis yang sedang dialami banyak negara Emerging Market termasuk Indonesia tahun ini berpotensi lebih buruk daripada krisis yang terjadi tahun 1997 lalu. Pada tahun 1997 lalu krisis dimulai oleh serangan para spekulan terhadap mata uang Thailand yang akhirnya menjalan ke banyak negara Asia Tenggara lainnya termasuk Indonesia.
Pada tahun 1997 lalu penguatan dollar yang menyebabkan banyak negara di Emerging Market kesulitan membayar hutangnya, penurunan harga komoditas dan kelesuan ekonomi juga memperburuk kondisi di Emerging Market, kondisi yang kurang lebih sama sedang terjadi saat ini. Namun perbedaanya pada tahun 1997 kejatuhan ekonomi Emerging Market disusul dengan masa recovery yang cepat karena dimotori oleh loose monetary policy di banyak negara maju, dan pertumbuhan cepat ekonomi di China sejak tahun 2000 membuat ekonomi di Emerging Market lebih cepat pulih.
Faktor yang sama kemungkinan tidak akan terulang pada tahun ini, membuat Maquaire Research memprediksi krisis yang terjadi tahun ini bisa lebih buruk dari tahun 1997 lalu. Namun berbeda dengan krisis 1997 dimana kejatuhan ekonomi berlangsung secara cepat dan menakutkan, krisis yang terjadi di tahun 2015 ini kemungkinan akan berlangsung lebih lambat dan lama, seperti penyakit kronis yang kemungkinan tidak ada obatnya.
Dalam perhitungan yang mereka lakukan terhadap banyak negara Emerging Market memperhitungkan GDP, hutang luar negeri, dan neraca perdaganan, Indonesia masuk dalam ketegori yang negara yang akan banyak terkena dampak negatif oleh krisis ini, peringkat 8 terburuk di antara negara Emerging Market, di Asia hanya Malaysia yang scorenya lebih buruk dari Indonesia
Jika kita melihat Grafik MSCI Emerging Market, kita mendati bahwa memang sedang terjadi penurunan terbesar dalam 5 tahun terakhir untuk pada negara-negara Emerging Market namun belum ada indikasi bahwa krisis seperti tahun 1997 lalu akan terjadi di negara-negara Emerging Market termasuk Indonesia.
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If the 1997 Asian financial crisis was a heart attack for emerging markets, the current situation is akin to chronic cardiovascular disease, according to Macquarie analysts led by Viktor Shvets and Chetan Seth.
In 1997, speculative attacks against the Thai baht forced the country to float and devalue its currency in a move that was swiftly followed by the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia. Then came a massive decline in Hong Kong’s stock market that led to losses in markets around the globe.
While parallels exist between 1997 and the current emerging market selloff (notably in the form of a stronger dollar, which makes it more expensive for emerging-market countries to finance their debts, plus lower commodity prices and slowing trade), the Macquarie analysts reckon the current situation might actually be worse.
Instead of sharp heart attack (a la 1997), it is far more likely that EM economies and markets would face an extended period that can be best described as a “chronic disease”, with limited (if any) cures or exits, punctuated by occasional significant flare-ups (short of an outright heart attack). In many ways it is likely to be a far more painful and insidious process. In the meantime, any signs of significant strain (either at a country or corporate level) could easily freeze up the emerging market universe.
The crux of their argument is that despite the difficulties of 1997, its effects were mitigated by rising global leverage, liquidity, and trade shortly thereafter. This time around, those factors might not be there.
[A c]ombination of excessively loose monetary policies (particularly post 2000 bursting of dot-com bubble) and China’s integration into global trade systems has enabled both EMs and DMs to recover quickly. This does not describe the environment facing EMs and DMs over the next five to ten years. The combination of long-term structural shifts (primarily driven by the grinding deflationary progress of the Third Industrial Revolution, which first became apparent in early 1990s but matured into a global phenomenon over the last decade), is aggravated by the more recent impact of overleveraging and associated overcapacity.
The chart below takes into account such things as gross domestic product, external debt, and current account deficits in an attempt to identify which emerging-market countries might be most at risk from a prolonged slump.
Such countries as Turkey, South Africa, and Malaysia appear the most at risk on this basis, while China, the Philippines, and South Korea seem better positioned. Although Brazil and Russia score well on the chart, Macquarie argues that their low exposure to external debt could still be undermined by slumping commodities and slowing trade.
Ouch.
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