Valuasi Indeks Amerika Masih Mahal

Menjelang akhir kuartal ketiga ini, para analis Wallstreet memprediksi kenerja perusahaan-perusahaan di Amerika diprediksi akan mengalami penurunan dibandingkan dengan periode yang sama tahun lalu. Berdasarkan data Reuters, forecast dari keuntungan 500 saham terbesar di Amerika pada kuartal ketiga turun 3.9% dibandingkan tahun lalu.

Penurunan keuntungan perusahaan disebabkan oleh turunnya harga minyak bumi, kuatnya dollar dan pelemahan permintaan global. Kuartal keempat nanti pun diprediksi tidak akan lebih baik, kinerja perusahaan-perusahaan Amerika tahun 2015 diprediksi akan mengalami penurunan ssebesar 2% dibandingkan dengan tahun 2015.

Akibat penurunan keuntungan yang kemungkinan akan dialami oleh perusahaan-perusahaan terbesar di Amerika, indeks Amerika diperkirakan masih akan terkoreksi lebih dalam di tahun 2015 ini. Penurunan keuntungan ini pertama kali terjadi sejak krisis keuangan tahun 2009 lalu.

Saat ini 500 saham dengan market cap terbesar di Amerika diperdagangkan di kisaran 16x dari estimasi keuntungannya tahun depan. Level ini masih lebih tinggi dari rata-rata nya yang di kisaran 15x dari estimasi keuntungan di tahun yang akan datang. Indeks Amerika masih berpotensi untuk turun 5-8% lagi dari level penutupan hari Jumat kemarin untuk mencapai level valuasi rata-ratanya.

 

Berita lengkapnya dapat anda baca di bawah.

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Wall Street is bracing for a grim earnings season, with little improvement expected anytime soon.

    Analysts have been cutting projections for the third quarter, which ends on Wednesday, and beyond. If the declining projections are realized, already costly stocks could become pricier and equity investors could become even more skittish.

    Forecasts for third-quarter S&P 500 earnings now call for a 3.9 percent decline from a year ago, based on Thomson Reuters data, with half of the S&P sectors estimated to post lower profits thanks to falling oil prices, a strong U.S. dollar and weak global demand.

    Expectations for future quarters are falling as well. A rolling 12-month forward earnings per share forecast now stands near negative 2 percent, the lowest since late 2009, when it was down 10.1 percent, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S data.

    That’s further reason for stock investors to worry since market multiples are still above historic levels despite the recent sell-off. Investors are inclined to pay more for companies that are showing growth in earnings and revenue.

    The weak forecasts have some strategists talking about an “earnings recession,” meaning two quarterly profit declines in a row, as opposed to an economic recession, in which gross domestic product falls for two straight quarters.

    “Earnings recessions aren’t good things. I don’t care what the state of the economy is or anything else,” said Michael Mullaney, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Co in Boston.

    The S&P 500 is down about 9 percent from its May 21 closing high, dragged down by concern over the effect of slower Chinese growth on global demand and the uncertain interest rate outlook. The low earnings outlook adds another burden.

    China’s weaker demand outlook has also pressured commodity prices, particularly copper.

    COSTLY SHARES

    Even with the recent selloff, stocks are still expensive by some gauges. The S&P 500 index is selling at roughly 16 times its expected earnings for the next 12 months, lower than this year’s peak of 17.8 but higher than the historic mean of about 15. The index would have to drop to about 1,800 to bring valuations back to the long-term range. The S&P 500 closed at 1,931.34 on Friday.

    Moreover, forward and trailing price-to-earnings ratios for the S&P 500 are converging, another sign of collapsing growth expectations. The trailing P/E stands at about 16.5, Thomson Reuters data shows. Last year at this time, the forward P/E was also 16 but the trailing was 17.6.

    The last period of convergence was in 2009 when earnings were declining following the financial crisis.

   The 3.9 percent estimated decline in third-quarter profits – down sharply from a July 1 forecast for a 0.4 percent dip – would be the first quarterly profit decline for the S&P 500 since the third quarter of 2009.

    Energy again is expected to drag down the S&P 500 third-quarter forecast the most, with an expected 64.7 percent decrease in the sector. Without the energy sector, the forecast for third-quarter earnings shows a gain of 3.7 percent.

    Earnings for the commodity-sensitive materials are expected to fall 13.8 percent, while industrials’ earnings are seen down 3.6 percent.

Sumber : Yahoo Finance